Hinton had Louisville at 34 preseason. He had SYR at 67
those are pretty close to S&P+. a little more accurate than Connely, but still pretty close (and both way off what would happen to Louisville).
Way too much emphasis on "they were this good, so they'll be this good again".
Take Louisville this past fall. They had only 10 returning starters, lost their Heisman QB, had flashing warning lights everywhere (their fanbase was nervous as hell according to the Louisville bloggers I follow), yet Connelly's numbers had them 29th nationally preseason (with "returning production" ranked 44th). If you lose 7 offensive starters (including most every productive skill player and a superstar QB who accounted for almost all of your offense) and 5 defensive starters, in no way should some metric have you 44th out of 130 teams in "returning production".
Conversely, Syracuse returned 15 starters (including a senior QB and most every skill player on offense) yet they were 71st in the S&P+ projections and 83rd in returning production. With a glance at rosters and experience, there's no way anyone would have felt better about what Louisville had coming back vs. what Syracuse had coming back. So there's no way Syracuse's score in that metric should be double Louisville's score.
I think the numbers are built to separate what the top-25 teams are going to do (Oklahoma might drop from 4th to 11th based on the lack of returning production compared to their peers), but they're not built to identify low-end teams that have a lot of experience returning (like Syracuse).
Give me Hinton's numbers (which take a heavy look at game experience). But those numbers won't be out until August.
Message Thread | This response ↓|
S&P+ Preseason Projections - UIHuskie February 11, 2019, 8:20:15
- Humble Beast visiting - jdl February 11, 2019, 15:30:28
- Locksley adds to his staff - jdl February 11, 2019, 15:22:17
- Cam Watkins to choose between Vandy and a school where I sent a lot of my money. - Illiniphil February 11, 2019, 14:46:13
- Nebraska running back facing revenge porn and child porn charges - Illiniphil February 11, 2019, 14:09:32
- Wisconsin OL retiring due to injuries - jdl February 11, 2019, 13:14:39
- I've never liked how he does returning production. - roughy February 11, 2019, 11:09:12
- Hinton had Louisville at 34 preseason. He had SYR at 67 - illiniranger February 11, 2019, 12:07:03
- it's okay, we are a basketball school again * - MC February 11, 2019, 11:01:46
- the only thing that brings a smile to my face right now is thinking how Lovie made Whitman his b###h - IB February 11, 2019, 10:22:48
- 7 college football teams that finished with their highest-ranked recruiting classes ever - biclops February 11, 2019, 10:01:27
- Whitman is going to retain Lovie at 5-7. 4-8 or worse probably gets him launched.* - MrX February 11, 2019, 9:48:12
- 91st overall would be just a little bit better than Beckman's first year (93)* - IB February 11, 2019, 8:54:30
- seems about right. * - illiniranger February 11, 2019, 8:26:23
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