Just deleted my response here because I think I figured it out.
I was totally confused by this subthread but I think I get it now. You see my post as a defense of Illinois - "don't look at the Illinois ranking here because Connelly's numbers are bad bad bad!".
That's not what I'm saying. I mean, I guess it is what I'm saying, indirectly, since we'll hopefully Syracuse this year, but that's not why I posted this. Even Connelly says that these numbers aren't to be taken the same way as his in-season numbers. In-season he's trying to predict the results of the next few weeks; offseason he's simply trying to come up with a good way to predict a full season in advance.
And in my view, his "returning production" numbers still need tweaking. There should be a better way to predict a Louisville or a Syracuse (but I get that making those adjustments probably takes an Oklahoma from 4th to 33rd and that wouldn't make sense for the true purpose of doing this which is predicting the top-25 to the best of his math's ability).
Message Thread | This response ↓|
S&P+ Preseason Projections - UIHuskie February 11, 2019, 8:20:15
- Humble Beast visiting - jdl February 11, 2019, 15:30:28
- Locksley adds to his staff - jdl February 11, 2019, 15:22:17
- Cam Watkins to choose between Vandy and a school where I sent a lot of my money. - Illiniphil February 11, 2019, 14:46:13
- Nebraska running back facing revenge porn and child porn charges - Illiniphil February 11, 2019, 14:09:32
- Wisconsin OL retiring due to injuries - jdl February 11, 2019, 13:14:39
- I've never liked how he does returning production. - roughy February 11, 2019, 11:09:12
- it's okay, we are a basketball school again * - MC February 11, 2019, 11:01:46
- the only thing that brings a smile to my face right now is thinking how Lovie made Whitman his b###h - IB February 11, 2019, 10:22:48
- 7 college football teams that finished with their highest-ranked recruiting classes ever - biclops February 11, 2019, 10:01:27
- Whitman is going to retain Lovie at 5-7. 4-8 or worse probably gets him launched.* - MrX February 11, 2019, 9:48:12
- 91st overall would be just a little bit better than Beckman's first year (93)* - IB February 11, 2019, 8:54:30
- seems about right. * - illiniranger February 11, 2019, 8:26:23
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