It's true that this thing cost triple the amount of any of Villeneuve's previous films to make, so the chances it might not recoup its costs are pretty high. But I think the studio knew they weren't getting a $100 million opening weekend when they hired him. So characterising it as a bomb seems a little misguided to me.
This will end up being Denis Villeneuve's biggest opening weekend to date. And I think it might even be Ryan Gosling's biggest opening ever too (which is kinda hard to believe considering how much of a star he is, but it seems to be the case). Chances are good that it could get a bigger total gross than Arrival as well (or at least match it), and if it does then it will at least break even. And it's not like the original was much of a box office smash either, and adjusting for inflation the new one seems to be (roughly) equalling it.