This is not something that I can remember happening before this. Particularly given Dreyfus is such a big player in the Ag space. What does this mean moving forward? The spreads, as you said, have been volatile. Whether it is simply volatility on the other side and not an arabica issue, I do not know.
One thing is for sure, we have seen the usually boring spreads here perk up a bit. By perk up, I refer to the movement, as the theme has been pressure. Currently, HK is -2.85. At -1.4250/month, it is the equivalent of the 3 month spread trading -427.50. While we saw the most recent ZH18 trade out to -4.80 just ahead of FND, the 3 month spreads for the most part (going back to UZ18), have been much stronger. Prior to the roll and FND, the UZ18 spread spent most of its time trading between -3.50 and -3.20 while it was the spot spread. ZH as well, though by mid Oct. we saw the spread begin to weaken and trade out towards -3.80. Still, considerably stronger than the present HK19.
So how does this relate to the situation with Dreyfus?? I wish I had the answer. I do not know. I just wanted to point out the recent behavior of the arabica spreads as perhaps someone is able to connect some dots (if in fact there are any to connect) ???
EOM tomorrow, so perhaps we see some volume return and more defined trading ??
Many questions as we enter the final month of 2018.