January 02 2019
The 2018 year has ended with the Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets softer and ending the year 7.09% lower from the end of the previous year, but with the coffee terminal markets having fared worse than the overall mix of commodity markets. The New York arabica coffee market ending the year 19.29% lower and the London robusta coffee market a less dramatic 11.23% lower, than the end of the previous year.
The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of December were 93,033 bags or 40.17% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 138,540 bags. This has contributed to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first three months of the present October 2018 to September 2019 coffee year to be 416,100 bags or 42.06% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 573,255 bags.
The March to March contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Monday, to register this at 32.68 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.09% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 768 bags on Monday; to register these stocks at 2,461,882 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in number 4,550 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 55,388 bags.
These Certified washed arabica coffee stocks that had increased by 58.48% through 2017, have increased by a further 488,213 bags or 24.74% through 2018. While with follow through good new crops now coming in from Mexico, Central America and Colombia and to be followed by a potentially good new crop starting in Peru during the second quarter of this year, one might expect to see these certified stocks further buoyed during 2019.
The commodity markets had an overall slow day on Monday and ahead of the New Year’s Eve holiday celebrations and with many of the field of play, taking a bridge day and an extended long weekend. The Cocoa and New York arabica Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar and London robusta Coffee markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.49% lower; to see this index registered at 390.76. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.276 to Sterling, at 1.149 to the Euro and with the dollar buying 3.880 Brazilian Real.
The London market started the day on Monday on a modestly softer note, while the New York market started the day on a steady note and with the markets heading for a mixed day of trade, within an environment of thin and erratic trade. Both markets did though come under pressure for a while and with the London market having posted losses of $ 22.00 per Mt and the New York market posting losses of 1.65 usc/Lb., to bounce back from the lows and see the London market moving back towards par and the New York market moving into positive territory.
The London market ended the day on a modest negative note, but having recovered 86.4% of the earlier losses of the day, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note and with 85.7% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close and with the ability of the market to bounce back from the lows of the day and along with a softer U.S. dollar in play, might well inspire some degree of confidence and assist towards a steady start for early trade today. Against the prices set on Monday.
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