As for arabica. Another holiday shortened trading period , 12/26/18- 1/1/2019.
KCH9 traded in a very small range, 9930-10400.
Settlement on NY Eve was 10185, -0.35 for the period.
Total EFP/EFS activity : 1482,136 respectively.
H9 open interest was lower by -947 (129,838).
Total OI +2,533 (274,016).
Today we saw a very boring KC market. A narrow range, again failing in the 1.03 ballpark. The see-saw ,range-bound market continues. Today's TR 10040-10300.
Worth pointing out the daily 8ema and 20sma are getting tight and if the 8ema does manage to cross higher, it would be the first time since Oct. 1. The last downside cross came on Nov. 5 and the implications were for a consistently lower market.
SO what next??
I am still waiting for the market to wake up from its holiday slumber. We do have the re-balance to look forward to next week. The unwritten rule is the 5th business day (Tuesday) though we have seen evidence of some action already. US/China trade talks are set to take place and this may have an impact on the macro and china specific commodities (ie. soybeans, cotton). US equities continue to have a roller coaster ride, with today's big gains coming on the heels of a very strong December jobs report. Add to that, the comments out of Fed Chairs past and present, clarifying and changing some of the language thought to be bearish at the December press conference. What does this all mean for coffee prices??? At the very least, an improving or active macro environment should help KC generate better volume and some trading opportunity.