Steady climb higher. The daily is indicating the early stages of a buy signal. Some of the smaller time frames do show some negative divergence so that is something to watch intra-day. Of course the re-balance is set to pick up steam, whether that has any outright impact we will see.
As you mentioned the arb continues to widen, from around 30.10 a week ago.
10435 = 1.381% of yesterdays TR. 10485= 1.618%.
Pivot today is 10245.
IMO, the market is in trade mode , not necessarily buy (or sell) and hold mode.