Look at the report from 2020 and compare it to 2021 report!
https://www.cecafe.com.br/dados-estatisticos/exportacoes-brasileiras/
Cecafe report for Brazil exports:
11/21 Arabica - 2.388.718, 2021 Total - 36.288.464
11/20 Arabica - 4.080.675, 2020 Total - 44.707.805
Total 2021 Arabica (Jan-Nov) - 29.219.268
Total 2020 Arabica (Jan-Dec) - 35.624.703
Now, if someone can explain how to fill 6.5 million bags with Arabica in December 2021, I'll personally recommend him for Nobel price in... biology?
At best, 2021 will end with 31.2-31.8 mil bags of Arabica!
But if we look at import numbers for EU, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Japan and Turkey. That was time of lockdowns and pandemic, so bars were closed, especially in EU (Germany, Italy, etc).
2020 (whole year) vs 2021 (till 30.11.2021) Arabica Imports:
EU - 6523 vs 5805 - 718.000 bags difference
Germany - 7358 vs 5622 (!!!!!!!???????) - 1.736.000 bags difference
Belgium - 2871 vs 2411 - 460.000 bags difference
Italy - 2989 vs 2557 - 432.000 bags difference
Japan - 2162 vs 1943 - 219.000 bags difference
Turkey - 1379 vs 803 (coffee is national drink there) - 576.000 bags difference
Rest of the world - don't have time to calculate that, but let's say 1 million.
So, those first few import destinations will need to get 4.1 million bags of coffee by the end of December to be at the same level as last year. And Brazil needs to give some coffee to rest of the world too. So, let's say 5 million bags total. By the end of December 2021!?!!! HOW?!
I will compare 2020 Nov vs Dec Arabica crop and try to apply it to 2021 Nov vs. Dec.
2020 Nov - 4080
2020 Dec - 3642
-10.7% difference, but this is under normal conditions
2021 Nov - 2388
2021 Dec - 2131 (this is -10.7% from Nov 2021, but could be way much lower this year, since conditions were completely the opposite of normal!)
So... ICE stocks have 1.6 mil bags. Let's add 2131 mil bags that will hopefully be produced in December (best case scenario) - that's 3763 mil bags. How much coffee is missing to reach just Dec 2020 global imports? Almost 1.3 million bags, right? And that's best case scenario!!! These 1.3 or more million bags simply cannot be grown in such a short time, that's impossible. Plus, if ICE stocks get depleted, guess what... There's no control mechanism over KC1 price anymore, it goes to the highest bidder!
I have no idea where will price go, but this might explode in December!
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