Latest estimate: 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.3 percent on January 14, up from 5.1 percent on January 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent, 4.8 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent, 5.1 percent, and 1.6 percent.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow