Cuba is facing a significant crisis characterized by dwindling alliances and severe oil shortages, primarily due to intensified actions from the U.S. government under President Donald Trump's administration.
This situation has led many to question the island's future and its capacity to navigate these challenges.
Cuba's energy blockade has escalated, culminating in an effective cutoff of oil supplies from its primary external sources. The country had relied heavily on Venezuelan oil, which is significantly diminished due to U.S. sanctions and regime change in Venezuela.
As a result, Cuba turned to Mexico, which became its largest oil supplier. However, recent pressure from the U.S. has led Mexico to halt shipments, further exacerbating Cuba's crisis.
The situation has reached a point where essential services are in jeopardy:
Healthcare: Leftists once claimed despite 0bamacare's failures, Cuba's socialized medicine "works." But now, hospitals are suffering from a lack of fuel to operate effectively revealing the fragility of their system.
Public Services: Waste management has deteriorated, with garbage piling up in cities like Havana as much as Mamdani(DS)'s New York City, due to fuel shortages for collection trucks.
Agriculture: The lack of fuel has disrupted harvesting and logistics, leading to potential food shortages.
Historically, Cuba maintained strong ties with countries like Venezuela and Russia, which provided crucial support. However, the current geopolitical landscape has changed drastically.
As of late January 2026, Mexico temporarily halted oil shipments to Cuba and is facing pressure from the U.S. to reduce any future support. Although Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed intentions to continue aiding Cuba, geopolitical realities may compel her to reconsider.
While Russia has indicated it will continue to offer moral support and limited humanitarian aid, its capacity to provide significant oil supplies is constrained given its expensive decades long quagmire with Ukraine.
Hope of receiving stepped up support from Iran, a sideline cheerleader, has drastically diminished due to Iran's failed bet on a 2nd Biden term providing them with continued pallet loads of American cash and their failed bet on their terrorist allies Hamas and Hezbollah winning their proxy wars against Israel without getting Iran involved.
Cuba's ability to remain a player on the international scene has been dashed in the current global geopolitical climate changes under President Trump, as support from traditional allies has dried up.
Cuba finds itself in a precarious position with limited friends to rely on for oil and support. The impact of the U.S. blockade, compounded by reduced assistance from allies, suggests that the island is indeed facing significant challenges ahead. As the humanitarian situation worsens, the future of Cuba's current governance appears to be at an end as citizen welfare reaches it's predictable crisis under late stage crumbling communism.
Their little hope that remains is luck. They are currently engaged in secret talks with longtime nemesis US Secretary of State Marco Rubio perhaps he will give the current Cuba regime the nod on asylum flights to Beijing if they resist the urge to vent their frustration on the victims of their failed government - Cuba's citizens.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/marco-rubio-cuba-secret-talks
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