Matt Margolis | 9:57 AM on September 03, 2026
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
I recently wrote about pollster Patrick Ruffini's deep dive into more than 3,000 polls conducted over the past four election cycles, which found that pollsters overestimated Democrats by an average of 3.7 points, with that error ballooning to roughly 5.9 percentage points during the summer months before correcting in the fall.
The correction may have arrived, and it is not pretty for Democrats.
A new Harvard-Harris poll shows Republicans now leading Democrats in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters.
Among likely voters, Republicans hold a two-point edge over Democrats. Among registered voters, Democrats still lead by two points, but even that is good news for the GOP, as experts say Democrats need a 3-4-point lead to retake the majority[- a 6 point swing].
Much more at link:
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/09/03/new-poll-devastates-democrats-ahead-of-midterms-n4956852
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