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The weather forecast on B B C wrong but right.
Posted by Allan Campbell on January 8, 2021, 10:27 am
This morning we were due to be at Harrogate Hospital for 9 am.
On Wednesday late evening I checked the forecast for Friday morning and it said that heavy snow was forecast to start falling late Thursday and continue most of Friday.
As we live in a valley (every way out is up) in the Dales I knew that I would have to be up at 5am to clear the car and entrance drive and set off by 8 am to reach the 2 roads that would have been cleared the A59 to the South and a bus route to the North.
However even with. 4x4 it could be problematic. That’s why I bought a 4x4.
We therefore were able to change the appointment until Monday afternoon which rather surprised us.
I have been checking the forecast so that we can get out to the supermarket so did that yesterday afternoon click and collect. The forecast has changed since Wed. At 8 am today we could have been on our way to the Hospital.
At 8.45 am today snow started to fall and as I write it’s getting moderately heavy. But drivable.
Could I have got to the Hospital today. ? Very Iffy. To get the 1 mile up to the A 59 a constant climb but there are 2-3 spots where the snow loves to rest. A third of the way up yesterday there was a stretch of 150 yards with 1” covering of snow.
Finally, if we had been able to get to the Hospital it could well be that we would not get back.
Access to where we live could be very dodgy and if Harrogate itself has heavy snow no chance. My daughter and son in law got stuck in Harrogate for 4 hours a few years ago because it was gridlocked. They had no problem as in. LR Defender But everybody else stuck. If you have front wheel drive you are better off than rear wheel drive cars. BMW & Merck’s a no no unless 4x4.
I remember in the late 80’s I would go to the company bolt stores and get 6 or more bags of bolts used for trial assembly and put them in the boots of the various boss’s and staff’s cars to load the back ends. I didn’t need to as I just put all my lead weights from my dive gear in the boot, dive belt plus spares about 60 lbs ( I used to cast some dive weights back then) .
Back then I was a dab hand at weather forecasting due to my diving, able to read the Sky if there was. Anything untoward happening. A front coming in sooner than expected.
Back then I would be able to look out my boss’s window and till how much time we had to get on our way home.
There were about 5 or 6 of the staff lived in Knaresborough and as you have to cross the river Nidd at one of the two bridges with steep access, trouble.
One year it became a nightmare. I had gone to work with my boss who lived very near me as I expected snow and I could at least push his car ( he had a gammy leg).
We were delayed in doing a bolt for home as we were in a tender meeting.
It ended up that we formed a convoy of 4 cars. I was in the second car so I could help any that got stuck.
That night still stick in my mind, I ended up as a Marshall directing more than 15 cars away from the Low bridge.
No cars could get up either of the 2 main approach roads so it was gridlock. The only way out was along a narrow road Abbey Road which links the two bridges and goes out towards York along the side of the Nidd.
Just as well I had all the proper gear on after a close call the week before.
Since those days I have lost The ability to read the weather. Age and lack of use but the way the weather forms has changed over the years. You no longer get the buildup of cloud in the East which made it easy to identify that snow was coming. Now it’s more just grey stuff.
All buses and Post office vans withdrawn. The 2 main roundabouts gridlocked due to accidents.
Info from our son he would normally be driving around the NE today. He had already cut out going to Lanchester but had hoped to get to Darlington. Now staying at home.
The A1 around Catterick is always a problem, snow very zonal for 20 odd miles N or S.
Photos out our windows at 11.45. The road is bad and there are no road clearing ever done. We will be down to one way out ( of 5) but that was to a bus route no no.
That field used to have anywhere between 50 to 150+ sheep but the building shown changed hands mid Dec. So maybe they have not released the land to the farmer that used it.
We would not of got home from Hospital and maybe not been able to get to one of our daughters apartments if empty.
The only error the forecast had was the the weather front with the snow was running late by about 10 - 12 hours.
I used to be fascinated by weather forecasting 1971 to 2001 and tried to be a good as I could.
All because of Scuba Diving. In 1975 I became the diving Officer for our Branch. I was only in post for 4 months and had to hand over to another chap as sent to work up in Washington for 9 months. That’s how I discovered the Farnes.
As I also became an Instructor. Boat officer and running dives I had to watch the weather forecast in the week prior to a planned dive. Shipping forecast and observation in those days.
The biggest problem is knowing when to call off a proposed dive on the Farnes ( Farnes can be a killer if weather turns)
One because of the danger and two the cost if we got up to Beadnell and Could not launch. There could be up to 15-20 of us.
This happened on one occasion due to a big storm off Norway in which the reflected wave action headed straight down to the N E coast. The reflected wave action is similar to you bouncing a ball comes in from one direction and off in another. There were 12 of us that day with another 6 due the following day. We were able to stop the other 6 travelling as we went and discussed the conditions with the fishermen in Seahouses.
One vivid memory is that we were out on the outer Farnes, Knivestone on first dive and had moved to what we called the Blue Caps an location to the west of the Longstone ends for the second dive. Both shallow so DC time minor.
As I had been first down To secure the anchor, I was first up. Followed by the second pair then in went the third pair who had been on standby.
As we waited for the last pair to surface I noticed that there were quite a few fishing boats heading back to Seahouses.
I thought about it for another 15 mins and discussed it with another of the experienced divers. We decided that the fishermen knew something that we did not know so we signalled to the last pair to surface which fortunately did after 5 mins.
We headed back for Beadnell but the sea got up and I had to make a run for it taking over from the lad who was doing the Coxon job. it got to the point at one stage that I considered ditching the heavy dive gear, weight belts first then maybe the cylinders. Everything was got ready with a marker bouy to mark the dropping spot for retrieval later of the gear.
It was run in the troughs and then crest the oncoming wave trying to make Sea room ( go out to sea). To be able to round Beadnell point.
It took a long while to get back and fuel could have been a problem but we had topped up the tank before setting off back.
That type of problem is a regular occurrence on the Farnes. It’s just that the wind can swing a few degrees and if the flood tide or ebb is a bit stronger up rises the Sea.
Even on a flat calm day I have seen a rise of 4-6” between us going out to the outer Farnes as we cross where the flood tide passing between the Inner Farne and the coast.
Allan C.
Re: My son just phoned Harrogate near totally blocked
As far back as in the 60's, when living in Germany - outside of town - we learned to keep a set of chains in the vehicle for just such weather. We actually had to use them quite a few times. If not for them we would have been stranded. Today, 4 wheel drive, winter tyres, weight in the back and chains as well as towing gear are essentials when winter travelling.
