Japan issues warning over MEGAQUAKE that could kill 300,000 people
The Japanese government has issued an urgent warning over the catastrophic damage which could be caused by an impending megaquake.
Experts now believe there is an 80 per cent chance of a magnitude nine tremor occurring in the Nankai Trough off Japan's Pacific coast within the next 30 years.
New government estimates show that this disaster would kill 300,000 in the worst-case scenario.
This includes 215,000 deaths caused by tsunami waves exceeding 30 metres (98ft) in some areas.
The Nankai Trough is a deep ocean trench formed by the boundary of two tectonic plates, which is hit by a megaquake once every 100 to 200 years.
In the deadliest scenario, the report predicts that 2.35 million buildings would be destroyed by collapses, flooding, and fires.
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The destruction would cause damage worth £1.44 trillion (214.2 trillion yen) and create 12.3 million evacuees.
That is the equivalent of displacing 10 per cent of the Japanese population within a week of the earthquake.
The Japanese government warns that a megaquake could kill 300,000 people. That is almost 20 times the deaths caused by the devasting Tohoku earthquake in 2011 (pictured)
According to a new analysis, an earthquake in the Nankai Trench off Japan's Pacific coast would have devastating consequences. This map shows the intensity of tremors according to Japan's seven-point scale. Regions shown in orange and red would be hit by tremors ranking six to seven - the highest scores possible
Japan is particularly exposed to deadly earthquakes because it sits on a vast belt of seismic activity known as the Pacific Ring of Fire.
This region is the source of about 81 per cent of the world's large earthquakes due to the meeting of multiple tectonic plates.
One of the most dangerous regions is the Nankai Trench, where the Philippine Sea Plate is pushed beneath the Eurasian Plate.
This 600-mile (900km) trench has the potential to produce extremely large, and exceptionally deadly tremors known as megaquakes.
Last year, the Japanese government issued its first ever Nankai Trough megaquake advisory after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan.
As the risk of a megaquake in the near future increases, the Japanese Cabinet Office has updated its impact estimates for the first time since 2013.
Experts calculated the seismic force of a magnitude nine earthquake in the trench and used this to calculate the flooding and tsunami risk for each part of the country.
This study revealed that stricter building requirements and flood defences have only slightly reduced the estimated deaths over the last decade.
If a megaquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, some regions will have as little as two minutes to prepare.
Waves up to 10 metres tall will hit Tokyo and 12 other prefectures along the southeast coast.
Kuroshio and Tosashimizu in Kochi Prefecture will be engulfed by a wave 34 metres (112ft) tall.
As the waves break over the land, flooding of at least 30cm or deeper will cover roughly 444 square miles.
Almost 300,000 people would be killed - including 215,000 killed by tsunami waves, 73,000 by building collapse, and 8,700 in fires.
Post-disaster deaths due to factors like disease and exposure could range from 26,000 and 52,000.
If a megaquake occurs, 10 of the country's 47 administrative prefectures will experience tremors with a rating of seven, the highest score on Japan's earthquake severity scale.
An additional 24 prefectures will experience an earthquake rated at six on the severity scale.
While collapsing buildings will kill an estimated 73,000 people, the deadliest consequence will be the huge tsunami wave sweeping across the island.
When an earthquake occurs beneath the ocean floor, they push massive quantities of water into waves moving as fast as jet planes.
In 2011, a magnitude nine earthquake struck about 81 miles off the coast beneath the North Pacific.
The earthquake produced waves up to 40 metres (132ft) tall in some places and killed 15,500 people.
In addition, the flooding caused the meltdown of three nuclear reactors at the Fukushima power plant, releasing toxic waste into the environment and forcing thousands to flee their homes.
However, a megaquake in Nankai Trench could be even more devastating than the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake - the most powerful tremor in Japanese history.
If a megaquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, the Japanese Government predicts that some regions will have as little as two minutes before the wave hits.
Waves up to ten metres tall will hit Tokyo and 12 other prefectures along the southeast coast.
Meanwhile, the cities of Kuroshio and Tosashimizu in Kochi Prefecture will be engulfed by a wave 34 metres (112ft) tall.
As the waves break over the land, flooding of at least 30cm or deeper will cover roughly 444 square miles (1,151.5 square kilometres)
In the worst-case scenario, the earthquake would occur during winter and at night when people are unprepared to evacuate.
In this situation, the number of deaths following the earthquake would also be extremely significant.
The report estimates the number of people who would die in the aftermath of the disaster.
This includes people who aren't killed directly by the tremor or tsunami, but rather by factors like diseases or exposure to the elements.
Extensive flooding from a tsunami creates ideal conditions for the spread of infectious diseases while the destruction of homes leaves millions vulnerable.
In cases such as last year's Noto Peninsula Earthquake earthquakes, post-disaster causes have been even more deadly than the initial destruction.
The report estimates that disaster-related deaths following the initial destruction would range between 26,000 and 52,000 depending on the scenario.
That is 13 times higher than the number of people who died of post-disaster causes following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
Japan is going to sink beneath the sea. The earth shall stagger and weave like someone drunk.
...but I'm thinking the Japanese archipelago is relatively young, geologically speaking. There are multiple mountain ranges that have that "young" look to them: steep slopes, pointy peaks, tall...and volcanically active.
I've been following the recent Nankai Trough reporting, too.
I'm planning (still somewhat tenuously) to mostly move to Tokyo as my need to be up here in Sapporo is mostly finished: the business I bought as a "visa anchor" is basically running without me, as intended. I like it up here (and the entire island of Hokkaido is less seismically active), but Tokyo's really more my thing. The increased chance of a megaquake is certainly alarming, though. My little Tokyo place is WAY up in the air, and while it's a very modern, quake-resistant building, there's no such thing as quake-PROOF.
High risk of natural disaster is just part of life in Japan, but it can be nerve-wracking, for sure! Fuji-san could blow its top at any time, too: it's officially an active volcano, and does vent off now and then. But then again, so do I...
I may have to spend some extended time back in the US fairly soon, anyway (family matter). Kind of up in the air right now...
