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Illinois is getting plenty of pub as the Big Ten dark horse this offseason. That’s a recipe for disappointment — even if the Fighting Illini end up having a pretty good season! And that’s where I fall on this version of Bret Bielema’s team.

Another 10-win season could be hard to replicate against a slate of opponents that’s not as intimidating as it is selectively dangerous. The Illini’s schedule includes road tests at Duke and Indiana in the first four weeks. Then Ohio State visits later on, and the week after that Illinois travels to play a Washington team we're high on. Factor in a possible Big Ten misstep, which the Illini had last year against a decent Minnesota team, and eight regular-season wins feels more realistic.

Getting to nine regular-season wins, like last year, is possible. But even then, Illinois would be on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in. Is that a disappointment? It feels like it, with the way Illinois is being talked about right now.

Look, there’s a lot to like up and down the roster. Gabe Jacas is listed as an EDGE, but more than anything he’s a nightmare for opposing offenses. There’s stability in the back end. Luke Altmyer quietly posted the third-most “Big Time Throws” (Pro Football Focus’ metric for passes “with excellent ball location and timing) of any Big Ten quarterback last year. Without last year’s top-two receivers, namely third-round pick Pat Bryant, Altmyer will need West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement and Ball State transfer Justin Bowick to step up.

Still, the Illini are fourth nationally in ESPN’s returning production rankings. It’s no gimme, though, they'll bring back the good fortune that helped make 2024 so magical. In addition to dodging serious injury issues, Illinois won two overtime games and beat Rutgers on the final play of regulation. Kansas and South Carolina both had chances for game-winning drives late, and Illinois held. We're not predicting an Illinois collapse. We just don’t see a run to the CFP, either.

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/article/10-college-football-teams-poised-to-disappoint-this-season-172033573.html