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2017- Texas A&M: Myles Garrett (DE) Browns. Even adjusting for positional value, it's hard for me to not take Garrett #1 of #1s. He's the only one I look at and this "first ballot HOF." Obviously just set the single season sack record, but this was his 8th straight season of 10+. He's fantastic. 2009- Georgia: Matthew Stafford (QB) Lions. I don't know if this is a hot take or not, but Stafford >> Eli all other things being equal. One of the best pure throwers of this generation (it's really him just behind Rodgers) that got stuck on the bum-ass Lions for most of his career. His stint with a real coach in LA has shown what he could have been. 2004- Ole Miss: Eli Manning (QB) Giants via Chargers. His last name does him a lot of favors in these types of talks but also had impressive longevity and 2 super bowls. I wouldn't put him in the HOF but I think he gets there. 2020- LSU: Joe Burrow (QB) Bengals. Burrow is really hard to rank. When he's healthy, he's an unquestionable top 5 QB in the league. But in 6 seasons, he's been healthy in 3 of them and catastrophically injured in 3 of them. This is really an "INC" grade at this point. Could end up at the top of this list. Could drop a few more spots down. 2006- NC State: Mario Williams (DE) Texans. Better than you remember. Got to 97.5 sacks in his career. Was a 2x first team all pro and 2x second team all pro. 2011- Auburn: Cam Newton (QB) Panthers. "What? Cam this low??" This is by far the hardest one to place on the list, because his high was higher than anyone on the list. He's the only league MVP, so if you have him 1st because of that, I get it. If you look at the rest of his career, though... kinda mediocre. 2016- California: Jared Goff (QB) Rams. The rare case where a mid-career trade works out best for both sides. Goff got really unfairly beaten on in LA for not being as good as the trade up they made would hope he was, but he had a couple good years there. Has resurrected his career and been very-good-to-great with the Lions. A bit like CarsonPalmer+. 2001- Virginia Tech: Michael Vick (QB) Falcons. A unicorn before his suspension. In the league 20 years too soon. 2003- USC: Carson Palmer (QB) Bengals. A solid 2nd tier QB for a long time and for multiple franchises. Threw for what would be a Bears all-time single season record for yards 7 times in his career. Just behind Vick because Vick had higher highs. 2012- Stanford: Andrew Luck (QB) Colts. Tons of promise in his rookie deal, then got injury prone and dipped out at 29. Could still be playing and would be much higher. Have to ding him for the short career. 2021- Clemson: Trevor Lawrence (QB) Jags. I think he's a bit unfairly criticized because of how great he was at Clemson and what was expected immediately from him. He does just now seem like he's putting it all together and he's still only 26. Could go much higher on this list in 10 years. 2005- Utah: Alex Smith (QB) 49ers. Took a while to get there. Was almost 30 before he really developed into a good QB. Had a 5-year run with KC as one of the more effective and efficient GameManager+ types around. 2008- Michigan: Jake Long (OT) Dolphins. Was quite good early on with the Dolphins (had a first team and a second team all pro in his rookie deal) but then had two blown out ACLs in his 2nd contract that essentially ended his career. 2014- South Carolina: Jadeveon Clowney (DE) Texans. Long career but has 0 seasons of double-digit sacks. I think he gets judged a bit harshly because everyone remembers A) the high school tape of him chasing a running back down from 20 yards behind the play. B) him destroying Vincent Smith from Michigan in the outback bowl. Has always been more of a run defender than a pass rusher. 2018- Oklahoma: Baker Mayfield (QB) Browns. Was an odd choice as the #1 pick that year. Did ok in Cleveland, which really is saying something, but had he not had the resurrection in Tampa in recent years, would be much lower down the list. 2019- Oklahoma: Kyler Murray (QB) Cardinals. Looked like the next fun dual threat QB for the first couple of seasons, then turned into a pumpkin and is now one of the worst handful of contracts in the NFL.2013- Central Michigan: Eric Fisher (OT) Chiefs. #1 pick in the worst draft of my time. Serviceable tackle. Made a couple pro bowls. 2022- Georgia: Travon Walker (DE) Jags. Still early in his career, but like Baker, he was an odd choice to go #1 overall and like Clowney is better as a run defender than pass rusher. Though, unlike Clowney, already has 2 seasons of double-digit sacks. 2013- Central Michigan: Eric Fisher (OT) Chiefs. The #1 pick in the worst draft of my lifetime. Was a perfectly cromulent tackle on a good team. 2015- Florida State: Jameis Winston (QB) Bucs. Has no conscience. At least he's more fun to watch as a neutral than Bradford. 2010- Oklahoma: Sam Bradford (QB) Rams. The Jeff Fisher of QBs. 2002- Fresno State: David Carr (QB) Texans. Really was ruined by getting his ass beaten early on. Maxed out as a serviceable bottom tier QB for a couple years. 2023- Alabama: Bryce Young (QB) Panthers. Too early to rank. Started out really poor but has been ok in his last 20 games or so. 2000- Penn State: Courtney Brown (DE) Browns. Injury prone bust. Had 4 fewer sacks in his career than Myles Garrett had this year. 2007- LSU: Jamarcus Russell (QB) Raiders. Two-word review: Shit sandwich.




I'd love to see how others would rank these.