level 4 risk with a 15%+ tornado risk

"A focused corridor along and just south of the front will have the best potential for multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF2-3+). Accordingly, greater tornado probabilities (15%) and a categorical Moderate Risk have been included across parts of northern/central IL into northwest IN with this update."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html