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This game is something of a tragedy in my Richmond, Virginia home because I’ve made a point over the last year of trying to take my four-year-old to at least one match in every sport VCU plays. She’s been to two men’s basketball games, knows their cheers, loves their band, and I might have—before the bracket was set—bought some VCU stuff to put in her Easter basket. (Illinois needs a plushy mascot ASAP). Went to a handful more games this year and we all followed the team closely the whole season.

Program

VCU’s won 17 of their last 18 games, their one loss being to SLU a month ago. They are among the most consistent programs in the country. Their last losing record was during the 1998-99 season and their last seven coaches have all taken the team to the NCAA tournament, just as often as an at-large mid-major as winning their conference tournament. Their Final Four in 2011, however, is the only time they’ve advanced past the first weekend.

First-year coach, Phil Martelli Jr., is the latest to come in, win over 25 games, and probably bounce to a power conference gig in a couple seasons. Though we all know his dad, he’s not really a nepo hire, having worked his way up the coaching ladder since 2003. He had to assemble a team of mostly new pieces this year so while expectations were high for him it’s a surprise that they’re immediately back in the tournament. The team is a mix of a couple returnees, freshman recruits who contribute, and portal players moving both up and down a level.

Defense

They really like to pressure the ball the whole court. It’s not the same Havoc style that Shaka Smart memorably employed around their Final Four run but it will be a clash of cultures with how we play. We seem to often like rolling the ball as close to midcourt before getting going and they just won’t be letting that happen. I worry Mirkovic is gonna get his pocket picked a few times bringing the ball up. We’re definitely going to see at least one of those playground plays where the guy who falls off camera doubles back and swoops in unsuspectedly. I also am concerned that Andrej is gonna be loose with the ball on a couple drives and that’ll be all that we see from him for the game.

Expect them to really try and get out and run—especially off a loose ball or rebound—but they are prone to recklessly getting too many people running downcourt before they even secure the ball, leading to easy points back the other way. But be emotionally ready for them getting some easy transition buckets. We should more than make up for that with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, which they give up a bunch of.

During the games I saw in person, two entirely different molds of players really went off on them. They really didn’t have an answer for St. Bonaventure’s Frank Mitchell, who had something of a junkyard post player’s game. Physically they just couldn’t handle him so Mirkovic and/or Z should be able to absolutely feast. Mitchell was at Minnesota last year but didn’t really factor into our game against them. And then Fordham PG Dejour Reaves kinda gave them a taste of their own medicine as an annoying undersized guy pressuring the ball, gaining easy transition buckets, and getting to the line.

Offense

They get to the line a lot. So it could get really annoying, but if they don’t it will really throw them off their normal game script.

Because if they have half-court offense sets, I haven’t been able to pick them out yet (but I don’t really have a good eye for the game). If they don’t score in transition they’ll probably run the shot clock mostly down before someone drives one-on-one or launches from deep. Sometimes the offense does click and they have crisp ball movement that inevitably leads to an alley-oop or wide-open dunk, but this really seems to ebb and flow with how the game is going for them. They have extreme droughts that led them to blow a 14-point lead in the SLU game and nearly cost them in the conference final and against UNC. But then something will click, they’ll remember to drive to the hoop, start generating turnovers as the opponent gets frustrated, and they’ll find themselves at the line every other trip.

Backcourt

Before I get into the personnel, let me note that I’m not a smart basketball person so this is more vibes from seeing them a lot this year and not informed analysis from running advanced numbers. Overall, it’s a very fluid roster, with no one averaging over 30 minutes a game on the season. Obviously, that’s different in the tourney but starter/backup doesn’t really apply for the core lineup who rotates through the game.

Okay, so backcourt. The guy who went off against UNC, Terrence Hill, #6, almost always comes off the bench but plays between 25-35 minutes a game even if he’s not the hot hand. 7/10 from three will be an exception for anyone and that doubled his season average. He went 0-7 in the SLU loss and 1-6 in the conference final that they almost let slip away. He can get to the rim too and finishes better than their other guards.

Jadrian Tracey, #2, usually gets the start before deferring to Hill as the game (and increasingly the season) progresses. He’s got more size and experience than the rest of the backcourt but still doesn’t have the greatest handles. He’ll lose the ball on a couple drives and probably throw it away at least once trying to start the fast break. Spent the previous two seasons at Oregon and started (albeit quietly) for them when we shellacked the Ducks last January.

Nyk Lewis, #1, was the glue guy for their comeback on Thursday and has taken a leadership role despite being a freshman. He’ll be the one hounding whoever brings the ball up. He gets to the rim and the line a lot but doesn’t have the best finishes.

Local kid Brandon Jennings, #0, also starts at guard, will knock down his threes, and has a good nose for the ball.

Tyrell Ward, #15, is an LSU transfer guard who will come off the bench. My buddy has season tickets, so I’ve been in the same seats every game I’ve gone to and folks we’re hyping him up at first, but it had to have been “he’s an SEC player” delusions because he seems to have no feel for the game of basketball. Beware of transfers moving downward.

Ahmad Nowell, #4, is a UConn transfer who has talent and can actually play but increasingly hasn’t as the bench shortened at the end of the season.

Frontcourt

Lazar Djokovic, #17, is their primary post player. Comes to Richmond from Serbia, with stops at Xavier and Charleston along the way. He shouldn’t be able to do much against us with his back to the basket but he’s athletic and can streak to the basket or drift outside and knock down threes. Extremely moody player who refs seem to have collectively gotten irritated with. He eventually gets to the line a lot but it’s mainly a usage thing. Has faded down the stretch.

Barry Evans, #5, followed Martelli from Bryant University. He’ll start at forward but the next guy tends to close the game out. If I was a prop better I’d put money that the first VCU possession will end in him taking a three. And he’ll probably miss it. We’ll want him to keep believing the next one is sure to go down.

Michael Belle, #8, has had the look since he arrived on campus of someone who could eventually find his way onto the end of an NBA bench. But three years in and he’s still just a solid A-10 bench piece. Likes to drive and can score at the rim when he gets there. Had a key and-1 dunk that fueled the UNC comeback. But doesn’t have good handles so he often doesn’t make it all the way.

Christian Fermin, #21, will not play. And hasn’t for most of the season for personal reasons. I’m just mentioning him because going into the season he was supposed to be a key piece of their inside defense and his absence on the roster has left them very thin up front.

Matchup

VCU’s averaging significantly more points than previous years but also giving up a lot more than usual. Combine that with our offensive numbers and it should be a high-scoring game. They’re gonna get to the line a bunch but we should see a repeat of Thursday’s offensive rebounding domination for ourselves. Even if we have an extremely cold stretch, they are almost certainly going to spend a couple segments of the game sit around playing hero ball. It’s likely that as long we get back into our half-court defense, four players should be able to spend the next 15 seconds not exerting much effort. Just don’t let someone go nuclear and go for the kill when it’s there.

I'm 100% for Illinois if anyone was wondering and am heading south to the game at the moemnt. Either way it goes, it’ll be bittersweet over here when my kid hugs her Rodney the Ram stuffie.