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on March 26, 2026, 10:46:34
In particular, watch for the cells that pop first. That's your major hail (2-3"+) & tornado threat. Everything will eventually glop together into a strong line.
" Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly develop along
the length of the front from central IL eastward into IN, southern
Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating erodes
lingering convective inhibition. Even though low-level moisture
should remain fairly shallow/limited ahead of the front, a narrow
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger possible) is
forecast to be present by mid to late afternoon given sufficient
daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Strong flow of
50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer and related deep-layer shear of
similar magnitude will support organized updrafts and supercells
with this initial development. Large to very large hail (2+ inches
in diameter possible) should occur as long as a supercell mode can
be maintained.
A fairly quick transition to more linear structures appears likely
given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat for scattered
to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more clusters spreads
east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley into western/central
PA through the late afternoon and evening. Given the forecast
strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated gusts of 75+ mph may
occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes as well with both
supercells and embedded mesocirculations within the linear clusters,
although a well-mixed boundary layer should increase LCLs this
afternoon as surface temperatures generally warm into the 70s and
80s. Some guidance suggests a locally greater threat for tornadoes
(perhaps a couple strong) may exist across parts of northern/central
IN/OH with any supercells that can be maintained along/ahead of the
cold front, as low-level shear should be greater across these areas
in association with a 35-50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.
However, confidence in this scenario occurring was too low to
include higher tornado probabilities with this update.
"the alchemy of the tartar sauce and cheese with the fish combined with the buttery steamed bun is so good." - Sounder re: a Filet O Fish![]()
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ECI folks- could be another gross weather day today - VIV Yesterday, 10:46:34
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