I don't recall him claiming any specific insider information. But perhaps I'm wrong on that.

On recruiting as a whole, I'd say it's 50/50 over the years, though I suppose we'd have to do a specific accounting of times he was right vs. times he and his staff were confident about something and got burned.

But there have been *a lot* of times they were confident and assuring readers only to have it flip the other way last minute.