On the one hand, the test scores and GPAs of all the Big Ten schools and places like UF are way higher than they used to be. But their acceptance rates are still around 50%, with the exception of a handful of semi-elite places like UVA and UM. While selective private school admission rates are down in the low teens or even sub-10%.

I guess there’s a lot more aspirational applications for private schools, while it’s more rare for kids to apply to a bunch of flagship state schools. Which might make sense—anecdotal info makes it seem like it’s a bit more random or capricious to get into an Ivy school or similar, based on what they want to fill out a class. So applying to 3 or 4 probably increases your chances to f getting into 1. While the big state schools don’t have the time to do really bespoke admissions considerations, so it’s more predictable, and if you’ve got the resume to get into Illinois, you’ll probably also get into Maryland or Penn State.