first class several years ago was at least half upgrades. it was a perk for an airline's best customers. but now people are simply buying more of these seats. and the delta between coach and first class, price wise, has also risen. we flew to and from Europe this summer, just my wife and I, and I was very strategic in the days and flights I selected to maximize upgrade potential. I also paid for seats in premium economy, and I put upgrades on both our flights. we were *not* upgraded in either direction.

going back 4+ years, i have been able to engineer upgrades to europe 75% of the time. but my hit rate now is far lower, and my status is the same if not higher, compared with those previous years. In the case of this summer, I watched upgrade list closely. people weren't moving on it, but business class seats were getting gobbled up. so those seats were being purchased at $6k-$8k per seat, per way. airlines are monetizing those seats in front of plane like never before.