- interesting tweet here Archived Message
Posted by illiniranger
on April 18, 2022, 9:49:50, in reply to "UKR thread week of 4/17/2022"
|
http://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1516046711394873347 43 armored vehicles would indicate a battalion. if the Russians can generate battalions against platoons, they can make advances in the Donbas. disclaimer of course that who knows if those numbers are correct.  Previous Messagefew thoughts: 1, i think Mariupol falls this week. Defenders are low on supplies and lack the means to resist. Hope it goes more than a week, wouldn't surprise me. 2, we are seeing limited UKR counterattacks S of Kharkiv and in the Kherson area. The Russians are under significant pressure in Kherson, this could weaken their offensive in the Donbas. 3, the Russians have been conducting limited attacks in the Donbas. I am curious if this is what they can do (as we saw near Kyiv they could not really attack with more than 1x battalion at a time) or if they will try and launch an attack on multiple axes with multiple divisions simultaneously. I think the former is more likely than the latter. If they do the former, they will not win as they will not be able to mass the combat power in time and space required to defeat large UKR units. If they do the latter they have a reasonable chance at success. I also wonder how much the casualties will affect their ability to launch an offensive in the Donbas, i.e. do they have the capability to do so at this point. |