The Deuce: Also - did you see the video over the weekend of Russia’s Tu-22 doing a low altitude flyover….

Which is not something I say casually.

They just have no idea where Ukrainian SAMs and fighters are going to pop up, which makes mission planning essentially impossible. Every minute they spend forward of their lines is a minute they’re at real risk.

Net net, I agree the RFAF will not effectively interdict logistics in Ukraine’s rear.

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Before being forced to pause due to logistics issues. Heavy artillery barrages will equate to a very high ammo consumption rate. The logistics effort by the Russians will be critical to their success. They are much more concentrated and closer to Russia in this area, so they will probably solve some of their logistics problems.

I strongly doubt their AF will be effective at interdicting UKR resupply since they have not demonstrated that cape yet. If they figure that out, will make the UKR position more tenuous.

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http://twitter.com/caucasuswar/status/1516154395783794688?s=21&t=4Sn1oVWR_kDINz7NCj2zRQ

UKR positions in Donbas are very well fortified. TBD what kind of effects the artillery will have on fortifications and villages. I suspect UKR ca. retain enough combat power to fight in static positions and make things very difficult for the Russians after the initial artillery barrages. We’ll see, maybe not. But UKR forces are very dug in there with WWI style trenches running through fortified villages.

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The RU can shoot artillery en masse. TBD if they can maneuver. We should know in a day or two.

http://twitter.com/elintnews/status/1516149683894333445?s=21&t=4Sn1oVWR_kDINz7NCj2zRQ

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few thoughts:

1, i think Mariupol falls this week. Defenders are low on supplies and lack the means to resist. Hope it goes more than a week, wouldn't surprise me.

2, we are seeing limited UKR counterattacks S of Kharkiv and in the Kherson area. The Russians are under significant pressure in Kherson, this could weaken their offensive in the Donbas.

3, the Russians have been conducting limited attacks in the Donbas. I am curious if this is what they can do (as we saw near Kyiv they could not really attack with more than 1x battalion at a time) or if they will try and launch an attack on multiple axes with multiple divisions simultaneously. I think the former is more likely than the latter. If they do the former, they will not win as they will not be able to mass the combat power in time and space required to defeat large UKR units. If they do the latter they have a reasonable chance at success. I also wonder how much the casualties will affect their ability to launch an offensive in the Donbas, i.e. do they have the capability to do so at this point.