Also - did you see the video over the weekend of Russia’s Tu-22 doing a low altitude flyover…. Archived Message
Posted by opossum jenkins on April 18, 2022, 16:00:10, in reply to "I think the Russian Air Force is just straight up afraid at this point. "
…..of Mariupol? |
That’s what Moscow’s mighty Long Range Aviation force has been reduced to: show of ####ing force.
Which is not something I say casually.
They just have no idea where Ukrainian SAMs and fighters are going to pop up, which makes mission planning essentially impossible. Every minute they spend forward of their lines is a minute they’re at real risk.
Net net, I agree the RFAF will not effectively interdict logistics in Ukraine’s rear.
Before being forced to pause due to logistics issues. Heavy artillery barrages will equate to a very high ammo consumption rate. The logistics effort by the Russians will be critical to their success. They are much more concentrated and closer to Russia in this area, so they will probably solve some of their logistics problems.
I strongly doubt their AF will be effective at interdicting UKR resupply since they have not demonstrated that cape yet. If they figure that out, will make the UKR position more tenuous.
UKR positions in Donbas are very well fortified. TBD what kind of effects the artillery will have on fortifications and villages. I suspect UKR ca. retain enough combat power to fight in static positions and make things very difficult for the Russians after the initial artillery barrages. We’ll see, maybe not. But UKR forces are very dug in there with WWI style trenches running through fortified villages.
The RU can shoot artillery en masse. TBD if they can maneuver. We should know in a day or two. http://twitter.com/elintnews/status/1516149683894333445?s=21&t=4Sn1oVWR_kDINz7NCj2zRQ
1, i think Mariupol falls this week. Defenders are low on supplies and lack the means to resist. Hope it goes more than a week, wouldn't surprise me.
2, we are seeing limited UKR counterattacks S of Kharkiv and in the Kherson area. The Russians are under significant pressure in Kherson, this could weaken their offensive in the Donbas.
3, the Russians have been conducting limited attacks in the Donbas. I am curious if this is what they can do (as we saw near Kyiv they could not really attack with more than 1x battalion at a time) or if they will try and launch an attack on multiple axes with multiple divisions simultaneously. I think the former is more likely than the latter. If they do the former, they will not win as they will not be able to mass the combat power in time and space required to defeat large UKR units. If they do the latter they have a reasonable chance at success. I also wonder how much the casualties will affect their ability to launch an offensive in the Donbas, i.e. do they have the capability to do so at this point.
Message Thread: | This response ↓
- UKR thread week of 4/17/2022 - illiniranger April 18, 2022, 9:41:48
- SOS and SOD visit Ukraine - TarheelIllini April 25, 2022, 5:33:45
- It appears UKR has struck a Russian petroleum storage facility tens of kilometers over the border. - opossum jenkins April 24, 2022, 19:49:30
- This a fair bit of American hardware hardware. Hmmwvs, 90 howitzer, 5,500 javelin and more - Tooldresser April 23, 2022, 5:50:01
- Putin's got Parkinson's? (video in link) - ECEIllinois April 22, 2022, 12:29:08
- Naah man, he just speaks jive* - ATL April 22, 2022, 14:16:45
- Are there any recent videos of him walking? - Stu April 22, 2022, 12:46:10
- He's probably worried the table will float away: - Chuck Woodaby April 22, 2022, 12:42:42
- been rumored for a while, but i don't think anybody really knows outside of the Putin inner circle - illiniranger April 22, 2022, 12:39:40
- Nothing to see here - Stu April 22, 2022, 10:35:35
- Interesting possible Russian tactical/goal update - snipes824 April 22, 2022, 10:23:47
- Top Russian Air Defense Lab caught fire and burned - Tooldresser April 22, 2022, 10:19:53
- i don't think this moves the needle much, but demonstrates how UKR is able to reconstitute combat - illiniranger April 20, 2022, 11:35:06
- Disturbing, if true, thread on the German response. - larue33 April 20, 2022, 8:45:59
- Thread on Russia's command and execution problems. - larue33 April 20, 2022, 8:41:04
- This repeats a lot of what Ranger said - Tooldresser April 20, 2022, 8:17:27
- No large scale ground attacks in Donbas yet - illiniranger April 20, 2022, 7:23:43
- Well, well, well—actual air combat tactics out of the Russian Air Force. - opossum jenkins April 19, 2022, 18:03:15
- i'm not sure who the audience is for these performances - illiniranger April 19, 2022, 12:37:30
- I think this is an overly optimistic read on the current situation, but it’s close - illiniranger April 18, 2022, 19:12:34
- If true, then the offensive is underway - illiniranger April 18, 2022, 15:40:17
- Folks have asked about intel sharing with UKR. To that end, I recommend taking to heart the below…. - opossum jenkins April 18, 2022, 15:07:57
- Hey, just wanted to say I really appreciate you sharing your perspective and answering questions. - Carl Spackler April 18, 2022, 12:00:25
- Some opinions on the sea side of the UKR war - Tooldresser April 18, 2022, 11:16:27
- interesting tweet here - illiniranger April 18, 2022, 9:49:50