How effective will Russian indirect fires be on UKR positions? I think the UKR positions are reasonably good, but the Russians have a lot of artillery and if they can adjust it from drone observation it could be devastating in small pockets. This could allow for small breakthroughs that force the UKR back. If the UKR positions are able to hold out I think the RU will get stopped with minimal gains. If the Russians can bring their artillery to bear in a significant way, I think the UKR will have to retreat.
I think in 48 hours we’ll have a pretty good read of how it will play out. I think it’s something like 50-50 the RU take the Donbas by 9 May.
1, i think Mariupol falls this week. Defenders are low on supplies and lack the means to resist. Hope it goes more than a week, wouldn't surprise me.
2, we are seeing limited UKR counterattacks S of Kharkiv and in the Kherson area. The Russians are under significant pressure in Kherson, this could weaken their offensive in the Donbas.
3, the Russians have been conducting limited attacks in the Donbas. I am curious if this is what they can do (as we saw near Kyiv they could not really attack with more than 1x battalion at a time) or if they will try and launch an attack on multiple axes with multiple divisions simultaneously. I think the former is more likely than the latter. If they do the former, they will not win as they will not be able to mass the combat power in time and space required to defeat large UKR units. If they do the latter they have a reasonable chance at success. I also wonder how much the casualties will affect their ability to launch an offensive in the Donbas, i.e. do they have the capability to do so at this point.