A joint study published by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture in the CGIAR research program on climate change, agriculture and food safety (CCAFS) focused specifically on projections for the most delicate Arabica plant. "Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation will decrease crops, reduce quality, and increase the presence of insects and diseases," predicts the study, which also estimated that "Brazil will see a fall of 25 percent in the production of Arabica "
What happens to coffee with increasing temperature? At 23 degrees the metabolism of plants accelerates, there are fewer chemicals that give the typical aroma of coffee and the plants spontaneously lose their fruits. Moreover, the attacks of pests and mushrooms become more ferocious. Two are the enemies of coffee plants: the coffee berry borer, predator insect and the coffee rust, a parasite also called "la roya". The breeding rate of the coffee berry borer changes with the temperature: now it is five times a year, but it could increase. The pesticide used to extirpate it is called Endosulfan, banned in 2011 for its toxicity, the coffee berry borer have become ubiquitous and cause damages for about 500 million dollars a year.In El Salvador "la roya" afflicts about 75% of plants. In Costa Rica, 60%, in Guatemala 70%.
All experts agree: even if you could find some Arabica variety that could be compatible with climate change, it will take at least 25 or 30 years for these to be marketed and reach the growers.
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