May 23 2019
The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service USDA have forecast that the new Brazil coffee crop shall be only a modest 8.49% lower than last years bumper and surplus coffee crop, at a total of 59.3 million bags. This what some might foresee to be an ambitious number, being related to a 14.94% fall in arabica coffee production for this year to total 41 million bags, but a 10.24% increase in conilon robusta coffee production, to total 18.3 million bags.
The report does come in against a number of respected Brazil coffee crop forecasts that are not far off the number coming to the fore from the USDA, which can only contribute towards the prevailing bearish sentiment within the coffee markets. A sentiment that has only been interrupted this week, by some cold weather fears emanating from Brazil, but most foreseeing this as an unlikely threat.
The USDA have also reported that they forecast the new coffee crop out of India for the forthcoming October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year shall be 310,000 bags or 6% higher than the previous crop, at a total of 5.48 million bags. This crop related to a 1.483 million bags of arabica coffees and to 3.997 million bags of robusta coffees.
The USDA who estimate that domestic consumption in India stall total 1.27 million bags of coffee, which shall be countered by 1.307 million bags of coffee imports. Therefore, to foresee that India shall export in the form of the combination of green coffees and value added processed coffees, a total of 5.555 million bags.
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