May 24 2019
The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service USDA have forecast that the next Vietnam crop that is due to start being harvested in October, shall be marginally higher than the last crop, to total 30.5 million bags. This crop they foresee, to be made up from 29.1 million bags of robusta coffees and 1.4 million bags of arabica coffees and added to this, they foresee that carryover stocks from the present coffee year shall add 2.133 million bags of coffee, to confirm continued good supply into the next October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year.
Meanwhile in Brazil the analysts Safras & Mercado who have forecast the new Brazil crop to be 58.9 million bags, have reported that so far 9.5 million bags or 16.1% of the new crop has already been harvested. This well above the 11% of the crop that had been harvested at the same time last year and marginally above the 15% five-year average harvested, at the same time in the previous years. Noting that this is related to approximately 30% of the new conilon robusta coffee crop having been harvested and along with, 10% of the new arabica coffee crop.
The cold front that has been reported earlier this week, has started to impact upon the main coffee districts in south east Brazil and bringing with it rains and cold weather and with a follow-on cold front expected, which shall cause interruptions to the new crop harvest. The reports of this cold front have brought with them some cautious market supportive talk of frost risk, but most this early within the winter season, to not foresee any reality to such a event occurring. It has nevertheless, assisted towards some degree of coffee market buoyancy.
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