We have been talking about the very aberrant weather that took place last year for quite some time that would eventually come home to roost in poor Brazilian coffee yields.
The large Mid-August flowering last year that was followed by 45 days of no rain, to then be followed by extensive rainfall with multiple flowerings to then be followed by one of the driest and hottest Dec 15th through Feb 15th periods in Brazil coffee history assured that there could be no bumper off-season crop and that we would have major issues with bean size, uniformity, and quality at a time of very poor producer tree care.
Your ground intelligence verifies this and suggests a crop much worse than most of the high profile outfits who do not seem to really do good research anymore have been saying.
Of course, the algorithms that control commodity markets now certainly would have no understanding of any of this and hence punish the coffee market simply because they have the money power to do so.
But it is a sword that cuts both ways. As we are now seeing in the corn market and now in the coffee market ignoring agronomically sound plant science fundamentals can be very hazardous to an algorithms fund performance.
Keep up the good work admiral.