June 03 2019
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within this market by 11.36%; over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th. May; to register a new net short sold position of 62,441 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 17,701,747 bags has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 3.5% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 28th. May; to register a short-sold position of 34,893 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 5,815,500 bags has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service USDA have forecast that the forthcoming October 2019 to September 2020 coffee crop from Nicaragua shall be 371,000 bags or 15.54% lower than the last crop, at a total of 2,016,000 bags. This crop to be related to 1,976,000 bags of fine washed arabica coffee and to 40,000 bags of robusta coffees.
The USDA have appropriated this relatively dismal forecast for the next Nicaraguan coffee crop to the negative effects of the prevailing low prices at which the last crop has had to be marketed, along with limited access to finance for the inputs towards the development of the next crop.
Factors one might speculate, shall be mirrored for many farmers within Nicaragua’s neighbouring fine washed arabica coffee producers in Central America, which is likely to see the regions production to fuel the next October 2019 to September 2020 coffee year decline by perhaps in excess of one million bags and possibly, by as much as an overall two million bags.
The Ivory Coast as West Africa’s largest robusta coffee producer have reported that the countries coffee exports for the first four months of this year were 48.4% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 391,750 bags.
The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened on Friday, to register this at 39.15 usc/Lb., while this equates to 36.55% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
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