June 18 2019
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 20.34% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 11th. June; to register a new net short sold position of 32,441 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 3.04%, to register a net long position of 40,736 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 4.25%; to register a new net short sold position of 39,364 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 11,159,520 bags has most likely been marginally increased again, following the period of mixed but overall more negative trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market.
The Green Coffee Association of the U.S.A. have announced that the countries port warehouse stocks increased by 264,518 bags or 4.17% during the month of May, to register these stocks at 6,609,868 bags at the end of the month. The overall Green Coffee stocks reported, do not include the in-transit bulk container coffees or the onsite roaster inventories, which with an approximate combined U.S.A. and Canadian weekly consumption that is supported by these stocks of approximately 570,000 bags per week, would conservatively have been at least 1.1 million bags.
Suggesting that if one is to consider the additional unreported stocks the end month stocks, this would equate to well in excess of thirteen weeks of roasting activity, which most would consider to be a very safe reserve. Especially so ahead of the further deliveries due from large new Mexican and Central American crop and the new Peru crop, which are coming in over and above the steady deliveries from Colombia, Brazil and Vietnam.
Evidence of the good volumes of coffee still flowing into the North American market, reasonable consumer market stock levels, a relatively large carry over stock into the new Brazil crop and the much-reduced net short sold status of the New York market, all contribute towards the prevailing bearish sentiment within the coffee markets. While with the mainstream consumer markets now focusing on the pending summer holiday season and the traditionally slower coffee roasting activity, it does little to assist to buoy coffee market spirits.
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