If anyone wants to see the Robusta COT it is available at:
We can guess what the COT will reveal. It is likely similar to the previous week as the market was propelled higher by short covering and new buying. More interesting is yesterday as the market fell and the pressure remained for the entire session. The market started out promising for bulls but selling, possibly profit taking, motivated possibly by ambivalent weather projections. And, as the pressure increased longs were forced out. It isn’t unusual to see corrections in a market that has moved almost 20 cents from the June 19th low to yesterday’s high. It is surprising however to see this correction on a Friday as threatening weather is predicted. Every report that I saw used words like “frost” and “freeze” but also adding limitations to the potential damage. Yesterday the outright volume in Sep was 80% of its total and forward selling, which may be origin, was again intense. I’d like to think that the market showed signs of exhaustion and will re-energize on Monday. Let’s see what the consequences of the cold front are, if any.
Other factors are that pension reform looks promising as reported by Gomes. Also Rabobank has estimated private coffee stocks:
Rabobank Pegs Private Arabica Coffee Stocks in Brazil at 18.9 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Following a survey conducted by Rabobank of 22 clients, the bank has pegged March 2019 farmer Arabica stocks at 16.6% of the surveyed production, higher than the 15% recorded last year.
The survey showed “huge” stocks with exporters and cooperatives, showing a consistent increase of over 30% year on year. The increase is estimated at 2.4 million bags of Arabica coffee. Taking farmers’ stocks and company stocks in account, Rabobank estimates the total annual Arabica stock increase to March 2019 at 3.7 million bags.
Overall, Rabobank estimates private Arabica stocks at 18.872 million bags as of March 2019, nearly 59% higher than the CONAB estimate of 11.851 million bags.
Rabobank’s previous Brazil 2018-2019 Arabica crop estimate, 44 million bags, only accounted for a 1.8 million bag increase in the year to March 2019, so the bank increased their 2018-2019 crop estimate from 44 million bags to 45.9 million bags for Arabica coffee.
« Back to index