The advancement of the Pension Reform in Congress is leaving optimistic analysts and investors. In a report, UBS was one of the first to update its projections for the exchange rate, seeing a greater appreciation of the real and the dollar valued at R $ 3.60 at the end of the year.
UBS, although the risks of postponements and changes in the text of the reform remain high, the market's conviction that the Pension Fund will be approved before the end of 2019.
The optimism of the domestic market is great.
It is important to remember that, at dawn on Friday, the Special Committee of the Chamber of Deputies concluded the vote on the Social Security reform report, with changes that changed the economy forecast to R $ 990 billion over 10 years.
This scenario of progress of Welfare in Congress also begins to raise the projections of cut in the basic interest rate of Brazil. During the last meetings, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) condemned a reduction of the Selic to the advance of the reform. With the market already requires a cut of 25 basis points at the July 31 meeting.
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