Also about the Fundamentals, I think a glut in the coffee world balance 19/20 it is in question and the 20/21 who Knows really?. A lot of things can happen in between... or not?
And the reality is that Funds know that, and if they are in the process to become net long is because they see:
1. The demand won't be affected for any reason, other commodities maybe.
2. Coffee prices are extremely low.
3. The New York C is for a long time well under the production costs in most of the Origins.
4. Because of the negative trade environment, you said, the major economies are confidently pumping money into their system being the inflation muted.
5. Dollar weakness is rather probably to continue and
6. The Real is in the process of gaining more strength.
In my opinion, the coffee price should go up.
Currently, the market is a stagnation period pressured by the seasonality of lower demand that is passing, but then it will have to go higher for sure.
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