Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within this market by 23.93%; to register a new net short sold position of 17,803 Lots. This net short-sold position which is the equivalent of 5,047,072 bags has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector of the market.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 5.77% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 9th. July; to register a short-sold position of 25,830 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 4,305,000 bags has most likely been little changed, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The Green Coffee Association of the U.S.A. have announced that the countries port warehouse stocks increased by 210,255 bags or 3.18% during the month of June, to register these stocks at 6,820,123 bags at the end of the month. The overall Green Coffee stocks reported, do not include the in-transit bulk container coffees or the onsite roaster inventories, which with an approximate combined U.S.A. and Canadian weekly consumption that is supported by these stocks of approximately 595,000 bags per week, would conservatively have been at least 1.2 million bags.
Suggesting that if one is to consider the additional unreported stocks the end month stocks, this would equate to well in excess of thirteen weeks of roasting activity, which most would consider to be a very safe reserve. Especially so ahead of the further deliveries due from large new Mexican and Central American crop and the new Peru crop, which are coming in over and above the steady deliveries from Colombia, Brazil and Vietnam.
The September to September contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets broadened yesterday, to register this at 45.16 usc/Lb., while this equates to 40.96% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange with the exchange were seen to decrease by 140 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,367,248 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 0 bags.
The commodity markets had a mixed but mostly softer day of trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index tending softer for the day. The Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.56% lower; to see this index registered at 401.02. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.251 to Sterling, at 1.126 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 3.755 Brazilian Real.
The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading around par, but with both markets coming under pressure and slipping back into negative territory, to take a softer track into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed and with both markets starting to trigger sell stops the losses were accentuated and with the London market posting losses of $ 29.00 per Mt. and the New York market posting losses of 2.20 usc/Lb., before speculative frost risk short covering buying activity and started to impact within the New York market and triggering buy stops. This resulted in a relatively sharp recovery for the volatile New York market and with the London market following suit, to see both markets move back up into positive territory for late trade.
The London market ended the day on a positive note and with 58.8% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a very positive note and with 90% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This somewhat unexpected recovery for the markets in late trade yesterday comes without any fundamental supportive news and one might think that it shall not bring with it too much in the way of follow through support, to possibly see the markets only taking a hesitant marginally softer track for early trade today. Against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
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