1-Current production already sold or mostly already sold yes. Nothing new there, as usual. 2- The quality of the cocoa is also decreasing with long storage conditions plus all the risks (parasites, etc) and cost of storage. 3-We know that when stocks are decreasing or depleting prices go up as a rocket in commodities (we have multiple examples and coffee is a good one where only the possible idea of frost is sufficient to move the price from 100 to 115). 4- After the top of last year and the period of return to normal, trend is up and this even before a formal agreement was made between Ivory Coast and Ghana. 5-There are still concerns on the quality/quantity of this crop and the next and/or the impact of the weather etc.
For all these reasons I stay neutral/bullish and confident that at expiry my put option will hold and ready to roll over and add other still at this level of price 2300 for the next expiry in 2020. So far so good, therefore no reason to change...
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