Sir do not get confused, 2018 could have had a big a crop for Peru and Vietnam too, but what does matter is 2019 crop, which is the current one.
2018 crops have been sold out. Those big numbers cannot have an effect again on the current market now. Those bumper crops including the one from Brasil have already had a bearish effect on the current prices and the market has discount those numbers already.
In my estimates, Peru will have a drop of 20 to 30% this year. And Peru is not selling at the current level. My information on other Origins tells me the same....and I don't believe Brazil is Hedging the big crop 2020-2021 at these lower prices. Simply, it doesn't make any sense. This is everything about FUNDS. seasonality and System trading models my friend.
The market will recover soon... you see.
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