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Re: A few quick thoughts
I think this way. ICE market is a bit disconnected from real trading. This is pure speculation. How big are real deliveries after contract expiration? This is only a fraction of daily turnover? Now let's assume that I am bull and would like to go long now, based on fundamental long time predictions, not short time frost hype or something like that. This is extremely dangerous with this huge spread. Buying today for 100 one is buying for 104 for real. So I will wait for FND and price adjustment. Opposite situation is from bear side. Selling today I have great spread and seasonality insurance. Last year price was basically falling all over 3 weeks before september FND.