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Posted by Tango
on August 19, 2019, 7:19 am
The market opened with some optimism but it slowly faded. Prices are now holding just above 96.00. The depth of market has become well populated in Dec. In the forwards the bids are scattered but also well populated in some months and extending to Sep21. On Friday there was also good buying in Dec and across the board. The Sep Volume is diminishing but itís OI is probably still at around 20k. The market behaved as if it was in the roll because of its lackluster characteristics. The outright volume in Dec was 55% of its total and the total outright volume was 34%. So not only was there good outright activity but forward bids were hit as well. There was also spread activity on its own. It appears that commercials are actively buying and may perceive this price level as an opportunity, including and especially the consumer sector. In any event, FND season should play a less dominant role and we can conclude that weakness in the market is brought about by managed money selling both liquidation and new sales as per the COT report.
The $ has been steady all morning but just took a dive but it is still higher against all major currencies except for the Ä and Can$. The Yuan is also lower against the $ and other BRIC currencies are copying the Yuan. USDMXN is 19.701 +0.0508 (+0.26%), USDCOP is unchanged at 3433.38 and USDBRL which closed at 4.0054 is valued at 4.0077 on the CME.
Bond futures have been weak and are lower while equities are higher as are the industrial metals but gold and silver are lower. Grains are lower, oil slightly higher and the softs are lower except for cocoa.
Prices are still and waiting for 8:00 which should bring fund selling.