Using that as a starting place it will take a major/historic weather problem like the drought of 2013/2014 to cause a true supply-side concern.
We would need crop potential to fall into the mid 50's or lower to cause grave concern as this year's poor crop will need to be replenished especially the high-quality end of the market.
Early/premature flowering/minor frosts that we have seen up to this point do not cut it as a reason to drive the market much higher...Given the above starting point.
We need crop potential to be off by 15-20% from potential. That will take a serious weather issue to do.
We do see the potential for a widespread drought developing in Brazil from now heading into the first quarter.
We feel that if this drought scenario verifies and shows longevity by mid-October from that point onward could be the time for a more spirited rally.
Much will depend on how much lower the crashing Brazilian Real goes as to how high and from what level any rallies were to emanate from.
For now, it is very hard to get excited by this market unless the Real does an about-face.
If the drought scenario above proves fleeting then coffee prices are likely stuck in creek mud.
Good day to all.