It is sad to say that I agree with you on "b. demand switching from Vietnam to other origins.".
From what I have seen since mid-2019 is that:
* Vietnam local exporters are struggling to offer to sell for new crop @ premium (diffs) +170/+180 $ vs London front month (for Robusta Grade 2 S13)
* and at the same time Brazilian exports have offered from premium + 30/+ 40$ bfore their harvesting time DOWN TO discount - 30/-40 $ at present ... vs London front month (for Conilon S14).
* Terms of trade is FOB for both.
=> SO if you are a physical trader, which one will you be willing to buy ?
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