Bloomberg via Moneytimes
24/09/2019 Vietnam's farmers and middlemen probably owned 5% of the crop, or 85,000 tonnes by mid-September, according to an average estimate of eight traders surveyed by Bloomberg. Shipments are expected to continue falling until next month, said Le Tien Hung, president of Simexco Daklak, Vietnam's second largest exporter.
Farmers are holding stocks to avoid selling as prices trade near the lowest level in nine years. Robusta futures accumulate about 15% drop this year due to plentiful supply. Investors expect a worsening, with hedge funds raising low-price bets to a record level since data began to be tracked in October 2011.
“We dare not sell anymore at this time because we may not get enough supply,” said Simexco's Hung. “Several traders had a hard time fulfilling their October contracts.”
Hung estimates that Vietnam exports a maximum of 120,000 tonnes in September and October. That would be the lowest bimonthly since 2011, when exports totaled about 60,000 tonnes, according to customs data. Meanwhile, Simexco itself projects shipments of 85,000 tonnes this season, which is below the average of 100,000 tonnes, Hung said.
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