How much it will add to the price of CC futures or will it add anything in the long run is unknown. Fairtrade is not a panacea despite they claim to be one. Try googling whether they are effective or not and the answer won't be positive. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't but definetely NOT sure they are.
I am sceptical becuase they do not cover all countries producers. Indonesia, Cameroon, Nigeria, Brasil, Ecuador are not participating and together these countries produce 80% of production of Ivory Coast and Ghana. Plus there is a handful of smaller producers. This is a big hurdle for those who want to see prices USD400 higher.
My take - it is purely related to next cycle of speculative buying. Last 4 weeks Managed Money have been buyers. Latest reading shows they were 22k long on 8 of Oct. Next reading will be available within hours. I reckon it will be closer to 30k.
Now the big question is - when will this cycle reverse? Hard to say. The range of MM topping readings during last years is between 20+k and 60k+. I lean towards lower bracket cause it is time for new crop to hit the market so supply must be abundant. US grind data is bearish, EU grind data is neutral, Asia data will be bullish after figures published by Malaysia alone. It is possible that speculators will be trying to push market higher waiting for Asian figures to be released.