Commercial spreads = 6,500 lots
Small Traders spreads = 1,500 lots
All other Spec Sectors = 11,612 lots
For a total of around 19,612 lots
The remaining 13,000 lots consisted of around 11,000 lots outright and possibly a combination of EFPs and spreads.
The bulk of the selling was done by managed money who sold gross 12,257 lots which included 8 new funds. It is amazing that with this intense selling the market changed by a mere -.30 and had a range of only 2.15 c. The magnitude of the selling together with the relentless trade buying is very bullish. Of course, we have other factors to assess.
What has prompted the sudden aggressive selling by funds of the last two COT reports is uncertain. It could be currency related or weather or something else. The Bloomberg report posted by Cooper is certainly bullish on face value but it seems that it requires further investigation. What is certain however is that commercials are buying with great vigor. Is the Bloomberg article enough to turn the funds around on Monday?
JuanV’s technical assessment is not inconsistent with what we have been observing, as the 95.00 general level acted as a ceiling on several attempts. On Friday, this level was penetrated, and, unlike previous occasions, the market did no back off.
Spreads are another bullish indicator if their strong behavior is linked to the physical situation as described by Bloomberg. The front spread has reason to be strong on its own as we see the Dec OI climb with just a few days before notice season begins. The more forward spreads are also strong. Usually the strength is derived from forward outright selling by origin but there hasn’t been much of this type selling below 100.00 even with the state of the Real. Warehouse stocks have been drawn down but in the last 10 days or so they have risen steadily. The assertion that there is little coffee available is difficult to accept, imo, as we witness other stocks like GCA rising. At the same time, consumption continues to rise as well.
Robusta is also displaying a bullish set up as new funds and new large traders are adding to the short side. And there too the buyers are mostly commercials.
The COT reports indicate that funds have added close to 20,000 new shorts in the last two weeks in KC. The implications are self-evident. Monday should be interesting.