Very informative summary. I think something that has come up and now is coming to fruition is the willingness of the FUNDS to in fact GO LONG.
Commercials will behave as needed, we know this. The "delta shorts" in the market that you mention I think are important, particularly with levels not seen in quite some time. Speculative strategies (by this I mean upside "short", which have worked for some time, are now facing more volatile conditions. I think in general it will create a more volatile environment should the market continue to climb. We are by no means in uncharted waters, but we are in unfamiliar conditions relatively speaking given the performance of this market over the last few years.
I would expect some stops above Friday's high (12725) , which is not only a 52 week high, but nearly a 2 year high.
I would be focused on the fibs off the intra-day high/low as well as the longer term range. Navigating the ebbs and flows of the mid $1.20s will require good analysis.
In terms of medium/longe term support, FYI, 50% of the recent range ( high to low) is way down in the 11150 ballpark. My more immediate level to watch is the 11900 level , which is 38.1% of the monthly tradin range. This level more or less coincides with Naguals fork support (11990).
When I see the market behaving as it is, I wish I was still engaged on a day to day basis as I was for nearly 20 years. For those actively participating, good trading!!
Just a few thoughts from the sidelines.