SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazil's 2019 coffee crop was revised down to 57.05 million 60-kg bags from 58.9 million bags seen in April, Safras & Mercado consultancy said on Thursday. , projecting a situation of adjusted stocks in the country until the next harvest, which will happen around May.
The consultancy projected the final stocks of the 2019 season at just 2.32 million bags, compared to 3.17 million bags a year earlier. She also stated that producers have sold 71% of their 2019 coffee so far, ahead of the average of 68% for this time of year.
Safras coffee consultant Gil Barabach said Brazil will have a stock-to-consumption ratio, a widely used indicator for commodity availability, of just 10% at the end of the current season.
"This fairer supply situation helps to alleviate the impact of Brazil's record crop projected for 2020 and partly justifies the realignment of upward prices in the international market," said Barabach.
Coffee prices in New York jumped 28 percent in a month as news of the low availability of high-quality coffees led roasters and funds to hedge futures markets.
"It's hard to say where this market will end up in the short term," Rodrigo Costa, a New York-based Brazilian broker, Comexim, said in a weekly note to clients.
He also said that technical issues and falling certified stocks led to funds being bought for the first time since April 2017.
In the market, many believe that Brazil, the world's largest producer, will reap a record crop in the year. coming, allowing the market to be well supplied.
But farmers in the country doubt this, saying that climate problems and poor crop care will affect yields.
Barabach said futures market gains and the weakened real led to strong increases in coffee prices in reais, leading producers to increase their sales.
"A few months ago the producer did not even dream that he would sell good drink coffee between 535 reais to 550 reais per bag, depending on the collection," he said, referring to the value per bag of high quality arabica coffee.
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