Using ICO data and correcting only Brazil data, we will have a worldwide deficit of around 10 million bags in the 2019/20 harvest.
Never in the history of coffee has there been a deficit of this magnitude without a serious weather event. Anyway, the story is that there is always coffee left in the world, in the coming days we will have the report of world exports in November, and then we will have Brazilian exports in December, so we will see less coffee coming from the origins to supply the importing world, this way will be It is necessary to use the stocks that exist in the importing countries.
So to correct the existing fatigue there must be a good price incentive, because if not, in the near future someone will not drink coffee due to lack of stocks and sufficient production.
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ICO continues to manipulate world production data for the 2019/2020 crop, there will be a deficit close to 10 million bags.
We await the publication of the report by CONAB, MONITORING OF BRAZILIAN CROP, COFFEE, V. 5 - CROP 2019 - N.4 - Fourth survey | DECEMBER 2019, to once again inform all growers that the ICO continues to manipulate world production data for the 2019/2010 crop.
The International Coffee Organization - ICO manipulated world production data in its Coffee Market Report - October 2019 published on its website, which points to a world deficit of only 502,000 bags, as in this reporter the ICO points out that the harvest in South America will be 78.08 million bags:
source : http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2019-20/cmr-1019-e.pdf
In the Coffee Market Report - November 2019, the International Coffee Organization - ICO reaffirms this manipulation of world production data.
source : http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2019-20/cmr-1119-e.pdf
However, it is impossible for South America to produce 78.08 million bags, the correct forecast number for South America is close to 68.34 million bags, the ICO deliberately increased by 9.42 million bags the estimated Brazil, as we will explain below.
According to the ICO itself, the average production of South American countries excluding Brazil from 2015 to 2018 was 19.35 million bags, according to the table below: http://www.ico.org/prices/po-production.pdf
As there is no biennial production of coffee in these countries listed above, that is, these countries have constant production, for calculations we will use this production average of the last 4 years of 19.35 million bags as the production forecast of the year. of 2019.
Note that in the report itself the ICO indicates that Colombia had produced 14 million bags in 2019, then slightly lower than the average found at 14.081 million.
It is very strange for the ICO not to mention in this report the production of Brazil, the largest coffee producer in South America and the World, as the Brazilian Government released and published in September 2019 a detailed report of Brazil's coffee harvest.
So when the ICO indicates that South America will produce 78.08 million bags in the year 2019, by reducing the 19.35 million bags of other countries excluding Brazil consequently the ICO indicates that Brazil harvested in the harvest of 2019 the amount of 58.73 million bags.
However, according to the latest CONAB report of DECEMBER 2019, production for Brazil was estimated at 49.31 million bags, thus the ICO overestimates Brazilian and South American production by 9.42 million bags.
The ICO has an obligation to use official data from the Brazilian Government, as Brazil is a member country of the ICO.
The ICO acts to conceal this world production deficit by making it believe that there is too much coffee in the world when it does not exist, data manipulation is hurting millions of the world's most vulnerable coffee farmers.
It is notorious in the main coffee producing regions of Brazil that coffee production in 2019 is much lower than in 2018.
Then in 2019 there will be a world deficit of coffee production versus consumption of approximately 10 million bags.
Due to erratic weather conditions in Brazil, as in recent months there has been a marked decrease in rainfall combined with an increase in temperatures in the coffee regions, the 2020 harvest will be lower than the total harvest in 2018.
Thus, it is plausible that there will be global coffee production deficits in the years 2020 and 2021 as a result of the intensive use of coffee stocks in importing countries.
We remember the absence of official stocks of the Brazilian Government, currently is ZERO.
Associação dos Cafeicultores do Brasil, December 17, 2019.
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