The first two questions are worth $ 1 million given the difficulties in answering them, but we have some clues.
The 2019/2020 agricultural year began with a prolonged drought that defoliated many crops. However, the beneficial side of this drought was that it concentrated the flowering. In October 2019, we had a flowering concentrated in the molds of the one we had in 2017, which culminated in a super harvest in 2018. From then on, until December, we had periods of rain and drought with extremely high temperatures throughout the period. This intense heat damaged many crops, causing miscarriage of flowers and dropping of pellets.
From January of this year to the present day, the coffee regions of Brazil have experienced a high volume of rainfall, unprecedented in history. Normally, water stress is associated with lack of water, but the excess also affects coffee a lot. As a result of these changes, a range of symptoms of nutritional, phytosanitary, physiological and physical disorders began to appear.
Despite all these problems, many crops are vigorous, not least because we left a low crop last year, and therefore, since this year is full, a natural increase in production of 10 to 15% is to be expected. . This alone should increase the harvest to 55 to 58 million bags. In addition, a large percentage of zero-harvest crops are scheduled to produce well this year, and many young crops are expected to enter first-year production. Taken together, coupled with a constant improvement in the coffee technology package, the professionalization of coffee growers and a highly qualified technical assistance that should reflect increases in productivity, it is reasonable to assume that the harvest to be harvested in 2020 should be around 58 to 60 million bags, already considering the crops depleted due to the high temperatures. In an optimistic scenario, due to the high resilience of the coffee tree, production may, although difficult, approach the 2018 harvest. What worries me at the moment is the continuity of the rains, which, in addition to all the nutritional, physiological, physical and health problems they bring, they can prevent cultural treatment and, with that, a drop in those numbers.
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