SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian soybean production in the 2019/20 harvest is expected to reach a record high of 125.6 million tonnes, with great prospects in most parts of the country, the consultancy AgRural said on Monday, when the harvest has already been completed in more than a fifth of the planted area, at a pace in line with the historical average.
Until January, the consultancy projected a production of 123.9 million tons, but the figures were revised upwards in view of good expectations for most of the main producing regions, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, where the driest weather keeps the attention of the sector.
If the current projection is maintained when the harvest is finished, Brazil - traditionally the largest global exporter and also the largest producer in 2019/20 - will increase oilseed production by more than 10 million tons, compared to official figures 2018/19.
“An exceptional Brazilian harvest. Of course, we have some problems in Rio Grande do Sul ... We made a new cut in Rio Grande do Sul, but the very good productivity in other regions of Brazil ended up paying off, ”said analyst Adriano Gomes to Reuters.
AgRural's estimated soybean yield for Rio Grande do Sul is now 51 bags per hectare, versus 55.4 bags from the official figure from the previous season.
On the other hand, AgRural sees record harvests in several states: Mato Grosso, Goiás, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Santa Catarina.
In the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), where planting was delayed this year due to irregular rainfall, many producers were planting in January, while some producers were already harvesting in Mato Grosso.
“At Matopiba, we maintained productivity, but the climate is now very favorable. If it continues to rain until March, we should have better productivity there. ”
In Rio Grande do Sul, “the first half of February was very dry”, with many plantations in the grain filling period. Thus, it may be that the projection for the State has some negative adjustment in the next estimate, revealed Gomes.
In Paraná, another major producer, the harvest is still “crawling”, after a late planting.
“There was some rain last week, it ended up being a bit of a mess. If the weather remains strong, it should take a ‘sling’ in Paraná. ”
Although the soybean harvest is delayed in Paraná, the analyst believes that producers will plant second crop corn in the planned area, even if outside the ideal climate window, due to the good prices of the cereal.
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