Porto Alegre, March 13, 2020 - Brazil is expected to harvest a record coffee crop this year (2020/21), reaching a total of 68.1 million 60-kilogram bags, and exceeding the previous record of 2018/19 , when the country had harvested 64.85 million bags. The numbers are based on a survey of SAFRAS & Mercado for the harvest, carried out through surveys with cooperatives, producers, exporters, traders, warehouses and agriculture departments.
The 2019/20 harvest was kept at 57.05 million bags. Thus, SAFRAS estimates an increase of 19.4% in production 2020/21.
Arabica production is indicated in 2020/21 at 48.20 million bags, with an increase of 23.4% compared to the 2019/20 harvest (39.05 million bags). The 2020/21 harvest of conilon is estimated by SAFRAS at 19.9 million bags, with an increase of 10.6% against 2019/20 (18 million bags).
According to the SAFRAS & Mercado consultant, Gil Barabach, who is responsible for the estimate, the rains at the beginning of the year, although they did damage to some structures, did not damage coffee plantations. “On the contrary, they favor granulation (grain formation) and reinforce projections, not only for a record harvest, but also for a larger one. And this is very positive for the producer, who will have quantity and quality of coffee in order to take advantage of the high prices observed since the end of last year ”, he comments.
Barabach points out that the basis of productive comparison is the record obtained in the Brazilian harvest of 2018 (the last with a high cycle within the coffee biennial). Arabica production in 2020 is expected to be slightly below the previous record. While in the south of Minas, production is expected to exceed the 2018 benchmark, in regions such as the Cerrado and Matas de Minas the adverse climate has taken away productive potential, with production not expected to reach 2018 levels, he comments. “Generally speaking, the Arabica production in Brazil, due to the lack of rain in some regions in the pre-flowering period, should not reach the productive potential of the crops and, therefore, the 2020 Arabica harvest should be slightly below 2018. ”, He concludes.
However, conilon production should continue to grow. Barabach recalls that between the years 2015 to 2017, conilon crops, especially from Espírito Santo, suffered from a lack of rain. Now, supported by a more favorable climate and strong investments in crops, production continues within a cycle of productive growth and, thus, enhances the 2020 harvest well above the 2018 production benchmark.
According to a survey by SAFRAS, the commercialization of the coffee crop in Brazil 2019/20 (July / June) reached 86% by March 10. In relation to the last survey, sales increased by 4 percentage points.
Sales are ahead of last year, when 80% of the 2018/19 crop was sold until then. Marketing is also above the average of the last 5 years, which is 84% ​​for this season.
As a result, 49.23 million 60-kilogram bags have already been sold, based on the SAFRAS & Mercado estimate for a 2019/20 Brazilian coffee crop of 57.05 million bags.
Lessandro Carvalho (firstname.lastname@example.org) / Agência SAFRAS
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