For the sake of context, in 2009 coffee demand grew YoY +0.5%, before swinging back +3% 2010. In no way do we believe that we are in a GFC analog, but it’s important to note demand performance in historical extremes. In short, our Balance Sheet premise of a structural 3 year Deficit of 8-9M bags from 19/20 thru 21/22 remains sound and will result in record Low S_U, despite adjusting for global recessionary impacts. Further, the demand narrative of shifting “out of home” consumption into “in-home” consumption is a valid one. In the US, the split of “in home”:”out of home” is 65:35. With the closure of food service outlets for coffee, the majority of those coffee cups and roasted demand will shift to supermarket shelves as well as buffered by technological efficiencies such as ordering apps and delivery services."
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